By the Strathink Editorial Team

There have been rumors that Ethiopian airplanes surgically hit five military targets in Eritrea last week. ZAMI Radio in Addis Ababa raised the possibility on its widely popular program, “Political Roundtable.”

While there has been no confirmation from either the Ethiopian or Eritrean government of this event, the Strathink Editorial Team has discussed the possibility and came to a number of conclusions.

Our first thought was the inevitability of a counter-measure against Eritrea’s recent kidnapping of over 80 Ethiopian miners working in Kafta-Humera district in Tsirga Girmai. Armed men in Eritrean army uniforms forced the miners to cross the Mereb River at gunpoint where a number were brutally shot dead trying to escape. Sudan mediated their release several days after capture.

This is not the first time Eritrea crossed the border and kidnapped Ethiopian citizens. In 2012, Eritrean soldiers kidnapped over 100 Ethiopian miners in the region.

These cross-border raids are symptomatic of the Eritrean government’s petty yet deadly acts of violence against Ethiopians. While Ethiopia provides a safe haven for Eritrean refugees, even sending young people to the universities on government scholarships, Eritrea persists in flexing its flaccid muscle at the border.

Why? Because Isayas Afewerki wants to pretend he is a threat to Ethiopia.

Eritrean President Isayas Afewerki has to pretend he is a threat because the 1998-2000 war with Ethiopia dispelled the myth of invincibility that has fed the hungry stomachs of Eritreans for decades.

Eritrea is stuck in the mire of a foreign policy based on its defeat during the border war with Ethiopia.

Elections? How can we have elections when Ethiopia will not recognize Badme as Eritrea. A ratified constitution? How can we ratify a constitution when Ethiopia is occupying Badme? Economic growth? Badme! Freedom of speech? Badme! Defined terms of national service? Badme! Independent judiciary? Badme! Freedom of the press? Badme! Poverty? Badme!

According to Eritrea’s president, Eritrea is one step away from renewed war with Ethiopia; therefore, the country must remain on 24 hour alert. This means that President Isayas can maintain his one-man rule over a nation of approximately six and one half million people, not counting the 5,000 people monthly who flee across the border to escape indefinite national service, grinding poverty and a hopelessness born out of the stagnation of Eritrea’s nation-building.

While Ethiopia stays determined to focus on its economy, Eritrea is fighting a one-sided war with its neighbor—a war with significant costs for its instigator.

Eritrea is currently under sanctions imposed by the United Nations over its refusal to allow members of the Human Rights Commission to enter the country and the “ongoing Eritrean support for regional armed groups.” It is astonishing that even while discussing the renewed sanctions last year, Eritrea’s U.N. Ambassador Girma Asmarom cited the ability of Eritrea to “defend its sovereignty” as being imperiled by renewal.

Eritreans are being held hostage to the leadership’s single-minded pursuit of mitigating the spectacular defeat of the Eritrean military in 2000.

And what about Ethiopia? Ethiopia has said that it will stand up to Eritrea, directly or indirectly. Although Eritrea does not represent a military threat to Ethiopia, President Isayas’ continued support of opposition groups, such as Ginbot 7 and the Oromo Liberation front (OLF), have the potential to destabilize the region.

The recent unrest in Oromia seems to have Eritrea’s fingerprints all over it. According to government spokesperson Getachew Reda, “We have concrete evidence that some of the people… involved and instigating violence in these particular localities… have their origins from [Eritrea’s capital] Asmara.”

Ethiopia has tried to use diplomatic means to resolve issues with their recalcitrant neighbor, using a careful and measured approach to encourage the international community to pressure Eritrea to abide by international rules and norms.

Yet, Eritrea continues to slowly implode while orchestrating acts of mayhem throughout the region in a never-ending quest to achieve dominance far beyond its capacity.

Ethiopia’s best chance at reforming Eritrea’s leadership is to help Eritreans change their government. Ethiopia does not want an unstable Eritrea. The President’s ill health makes supporting a viable and credible opposition more urgent.

In the meantime, Ethiopia will answer Eritrea’s provocations with a proportional response that targets key economic and military installations. Does this mean that five military targets were surgically hit last week? We don’t know. But if the rumor is true, it follows the pattern Ethiopia has set in responding to acts of aggression by Eritrea.

And as for Badme, pity the poor village that is the cause of all Eritrea’s problems. It must be a heavy burden for such a small place. If it wasn’t so desperately tragic, it would be a bad joke.