From the Institute for Security Studies

by Berouk mesfin

Summary

The newest state in the Horn of Africa has become an arena where powerful neighbours manoeuvre for regional influence. The deteriorating security situation in oil-rich South Sudan took neighbouring states by surprise, but they have risen to the opportunities the situation offers. Uganda and South Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea, Kenya and Egypt support different proxies and their competition could plunge the region into chaos. As South Sudan struggles with a military and political crisis, the Horn of Africa has turned into a region

of burgeoning geopolitical significance with crucial military, diplomatic, energy and hydropolitical issues.

THE SECURITY SITUATION IN the Horn of Africa remains fragile, not least because of the ongoing crisis in its newest but fractious state. Since December 2013, government and opposition forces in South Sudan have been locked in a full-blown political and military crisis. Unfortunately, diplomatic efforts have thus far failed to secure a durable cease-fire, much less to lay the groundwork for a negotiated political settlement between two sides mobilising support based on ethnicity.

The crisis has drawn in neighbouring states as both sides continue to develop their military capabilities, stoking fears that a full-scale conflict will resume despite the likelihood of a heavy civilian death toll and the displacement of a large section of the population.

Moreover, it is noteworthy that geopolitical interests play a key role in the calculations of the warring sides in their attempt to secure stronger diplomatic and military support from their neighbours. The result is likely to prolong and deepen this dynamic and dangerous crisis which would, in turn, have an adverse effect on the already strained relations among the Horn of Africa’s states.

Every day that the crisis continues, it puts pressures on regional states to support one side or the other, drawing them more deeply into South Sudan’s internal political affairs.

THE CURRENT CRISIS BEGAN IN DECEMBER 2014, AND HAS SINCE TAKEN ON DEEPLY EMOTIVE UNDERTONES

A diplomat involved in ongoing diplomatic efforts points out that ‘the longer the conflict drags on, the possibility of fixing South Sudan fades.’ The diplomat adds that ‘the risk of a greater regional competition involving states eyeing up in cold geopolitical terms the gains and losses to competing interests likewise grows.’1

This report will describe the geopolitical context and consequences of this underlying competition for direct political and economic influence in South Sudan. It will consider the practical military considerations preoccupying the vast array of players involved in the regional chess game. It will consider the main economic and strategic interests of the regional states and the methods that they are using in order to attain them, which could drastically transform the current power play in the region in decades to come.

Every day that the crisis continues, it puts pressures on regional states to support one side or the other, drawing them more deeply into South Sudan’s internal political affairs

The report is derived from field trips conducted by the author in July and August 2014. It also heavily draws on detailed interviews and numerous discussions since December 2013 with diplomats, military officers, foreign officials and leading analysts on regional security.

The report is divided into three parts. The first part looks into the divergence of interests between Sudan, whose internal stability is clearly tied to the security situation in South Sudan, and Uganda, which was willing to unilaterally undertake direct military intervention in South Sudan. The second part examines the greatest concerns of Ethiopia and Eritrea and their ability to position themselves in the competition to their advantage. The third and final part tries to assess the specific roles played by Kenya and Egypt, which are both far from insignificant in the regional balance of power.

Read the full report…